Gore'08 Delta Poll: Update 2




The results so far: 68% FOR Gore in 2008, 32% AGAINST. among those that participated in this poll (96 votes for, and 46 votes against).

In case you haven't voted in the "Gore'08 Delta Poll", which allows readers to vote for Al Gore (who was unfortunately missing in myDD's July straw poll) as their preferred nominee for 2008, here is the link:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2005/7/13/103215/913

Since the delta-poll rolls off the front page and therefore gets only a fraction of the exposure that the main straw poll gets, one can arguably multiply the results of the delta poll with an "exposure factor" before adding to the vote count of the straw poll (also, there were already ~450 votes cast by the time I had posted the delta poll).

Calculations (data as of 9am ET on 7/17):
----------------------------------------

Straw poll turnout: 1740 votes cast
Delta poll turnout:  142 votes cast
Ratio of turnouts (straw/delta): 12.25

Using an exposure factor of 5 (i.e. for every five people that got to see the main straw poll, one of them got to see the Delta poll), we get these figures.

Numbers:
------------

Straw Poll raw vote count:
Gore (Omitted), Clark (566), FeinGold (243),  Hillary (196), Edwards (138), Warner (187), Richardson (93), Bayh (59), Biden/Kerry/Others (258)

Delta Poll raw vote count:
Gore (96), Clark (-17), FeinGold (-8),  Hillary (-6), Edwards (-1), Warner (0), Richardson (-1), Bayh (0), Biden/Kerry/Others (-11)

Adjusted Delta Poll (multiplied by 5):
Delta Poll:
Gore (480), Clark (-85), FeinGold (-40),  Hillary (-30), Edwards (-5), Warner (0), Richardson (-5), Bayh (0), Biden/Kerry/Others (-55)

Aggregate Net Results (w/ exposure factor = 5)
Gore (480, 24%), Clark (481, 24.1%), FeinGold (203, 10.2%),  Hillary (166, 8.3%), Edwards (133, 6.7%), Warner (187, 9.4%), Richardson (88, 4.4%), Bayh (59, 3%), Biden/Kerry/Others (203, 10.2%)

Findings:
---------

  1. Even on raw-vote count, and even without any adjustments for the limited exposure of the delta poll, Gore outpolled Gov. Richardson and Sens. Bayh, Kerry, Biden, establishing resoundingly that he really should have been included in the original straw poll in the first place.

  2. If we go ahead and use an "exposure factor" of 5, Gore would be tied for first place with Gen. Clark, with 24% each of the vote. One could argue as to what the exact value of this "exposure factor" should be, but it is evident at least to me that Al Gore would have been a highly competetive candidate in this field.

Chris, I am looking forward to hearing your opinion concerning the delta poll, my findings therefrom, and hopefully a revised prospect of including of VP Gore in future myDD presidential straw polls.

Notes:

  1. The order of the candidates in the delta-poll was based on the the standings in the original straw poll when I created the former. It turns out that since then, Gov. Warner pulled ahead of Sen. Edwards, and Sen. Kerry pulled ahead of Sen. Bayh in the straw poll.

  2. I had to "blend" Sen. Biden, Sen. Kerry with "Others", as I ran out of fields in the poll setup form.

  3. I will post a final update when the main straw poll closes and the results are posted.

Just a thought: Would Gore/Clark be a formidable ticket for 2008?

Display:


Sure, include Gore (none / 0)

Aggregate Net Results (w/ exposure factor = 5)
Gore (480, 24%), Clark (481, 24.1%), FeinGold (203, 10.2%),  Hillary (166, 8.3%), Edwards (133, 6.7%), Warner (187, 9.4%), Richardson (88, 4.4%), Bayh (59, 3%), Biden/Kerry/Others (203, 10.2%)

Wow, that's alot of work to have figured that out, good job. You have to admit though, Gore's faculty of choosing a running mate could not have been worse. In 2000, he narrowed down to Lieberman, Kerry and Edwards. He chose the least best one, and then in 2004, the other two were given a chance, and they too lost. I'd say we put that all behind us and move forward together, but to each their own for now in early spectulation.

by Jerome Armstrong on Sun Jul 17, 2005 at 12:35:52 PM EST

Re: Sure, include Gore (none / 0)

Thanks, Jerome.

I agree with you on Gore's poor VP choice in 2000. Not sure precisely what calculations and considerations led him to Lieberman (back then, Lieberman looked a lot more liberal than he actually is).

But in 2003, I do recall Gov. Dean saying in an Oct/Nov interview that, should Gore decide to run, he'd bow out of the race in support of Gore. I am not sure if Al Gore ever saw that interview.

A thought crossed my mind that Gore should really take up Dean's offer and declare that he is running. He could have later picked Dean as his running mate, and that ticket may have proved to be quite potent. I wanted to contact his staff with this thought, but couldn't find their contact information. Too bad.

Neo

CLICK to Draft Al Gore!
by NeoLiberal on Sun Jul 17, 2005 at 01:05:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sure, include Gore (none / 0)

"Wow, that's alot of work to have figured that out":
if you are referring to the math part, I just used a freely available tool called "scilab" that allows quick "vector/matrix calculations".

Neo

CLICK to Draft Al Gore!
by NeoLiberal on Sun Jul 17, 2005 at 01:20:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Vote Gore, (none / 0)

up or down, inSozadee's Poll!
by Messenger on Sun Jul 17, 2005 at 12:46:20 PM EST

Re: Vote Gore, (none / 0)

I just did.

Neo

CLICK to Draft Al Gore!
by NeoLiberal on Sun Jul 17, 2005 at 01:15:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Next Time (none / 0)

I'll include Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter too. Let's see how well they do.
by Chris Bowers on Sun Jul 17, 2005 at 06:37:10 PM EST


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